Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $2,119$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(246 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,093.0}{1 + 10^{-0.064 (t - 36.4)}}\) (asimptote \(2,093.0\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $85$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(5.78 \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(12.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{103.5}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 36.0)}}\) (asimptote \(103.5\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $433$ on 2020-05-06
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $23,918$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(1.21 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,728.5}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 49.9)}}\) (asimptote \(27,728.5\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,941$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(166 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,138.8}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 36.8)}}\) (asimptote \(3,138.8\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $16,903$ on 2020-05-06
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $7,996$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(1.46 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,686.3}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 30.2)}}\) (asimptote \(7,686.3\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $216$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(29.4 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{217.7}{1 + 10^{-0.068 (t - 27.9)}}\) (asimptote \(217.7\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $7,748$ on 2020-05-06
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,573$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(420 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(17.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,842.9}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 43.2)}}\) (asimptote \(5,842.9\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $252$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(14.8 \times 10^{0.028t}\) (doubling rate \(10.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{280.7}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 32.8)}}\) (asimptote \(280.7\))
Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,821$ on 2020-05-06
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $10,136$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(1.15 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,237.6}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 36.7)}}\) (asimptote \(10,237.6\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $506$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(62.1 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{495.3}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 28.9)}}\) (asimptote \(495.3\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,941$ on 2020-05-06
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,799$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(366 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,801.9}{1 + 10^{-0.077 (t - 29.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,801.9\))
Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $10$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(2.29 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10.4}{1 + 10^{-0.067 (t - 22.9)}}\) (asimptote \(10.4\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $39$ on 2020-05-06
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $50,781$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(4.34 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{52,112.1}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 38.9)}}\) (asimptote \(52,112.1\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $8,339$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(577 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,151.0}{1 + 10^{-0.071 (t - 34.9)}}\) (asimptote \(8,151.0\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $29,711$ on 2020-05-06
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $202,359$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(9.61 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{212,362.4}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 44.5)}}\) (asimptote \(212,362.4\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $30,150$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(1.81 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30,678.5}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 37.6)}}\) (asimptote \(30,678.5\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $171,275$ on 2020-05-06
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $214,457$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(2.52 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{210,795.1}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 40.0)}}\) (asimptote \(210,795.1\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $29,684$ on 2020-05-06
Best fit exponential: \(2.91 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,125.3}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 41.1)}}\) (asimptote \(29,125.3\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $91,528$ on 2020-05-06
